Risk Management

The size of your bankroll and stake depends on your personal attitude to risk, and what percentage of your bankroll you are willing to lose during drawdowns.

Our preferred approach is to use a 100 point bankroll and stake 2 points per bet. To use this approach, you can find your stake by dividing your bankroll by 50.

For example, with a £1,000 bankroll calculate: £1,000 / 50 = £20.

If you’re a more risk-averse person, or find drawdowns difficult to cope with, we recommend increasing the number of points in your bankroll to 150.

Recommended Bet Types

The simplest way to use Bargain Punt is to bet all selections to win.

To minimise drawdowns, you can bet the selections each way however we have found this approach to be somewhat less profitable than betting to win only.

Compounding your bankroll

This is a method of growing your bankroll more quickly than time would normally allow. It involves increasing your stakes as your bankroll grows, which can be done per set period of time, or per set number of bets.

A £1,000 bankroll compounded at the end of each month, may look something like this:

£1000 starting bankroll = £20 stake

£1200 bankroll after month 1 = £24 stake

£1500 bankroll after month 2 = £30 stake

£1400 bankroll after month 3 = £28 stake

£1800 bankroll after month 4 = £36 stake

And so on.

An additional option is to remove your initial investment, once your bankroll has doubled in size. Although this initially slows the rate of return, it creates a risk-free investment and is therefore a wise consideration.

Profit Multiplier Strategy

To maximise your profits, you can also combine the selections into a daily multiple bet.

Our preferred approach is to use a 500 point bankroll and staking based on the number of selections as follows:

2 selections = Double (1 point staked)

3 selections = Patent (7 points staked)

4 selections = Lucky 15 (15 points staked)

5 selections = Lucky 31 (31 points staked)

You can find your stake per point by dividing your bankroll by 500. For example, with a £1,000 bankroll calculate £1000 / 500 = £2 per point.

The Bookmaker

Placing your bets with a bookmaker offering top odds (and "best odds guaranteed", if possible) has historically produced greater returns than using the betting exchange.

The available odds are typically higher at the 10am post time than they are later in the day, and you can use a price comparison tool such as Oddschecker.com to see which firms are offering top odds, before placing your bets.

Opening accounts with a few different bookmakers, allows you to shop around and get your bets on at top odds. Many bookmakers also offer concessions such as best odds guaranteed, where you receive better odds if the start price (SP) is higher than the odds originally taken.

Some of the major bookmaker firms have been listed below, with a brief overview of their pros and cons:

Bet365 – offers Best Odds Guaranteed, a larger than average welcome bonus, and often provides better odds more than any other firm. http://bet365.com

Betfair Sportsbook – offers Best Odds Guaranteed, an average welcome bonus, and has a minimum bet guarantee feature for all customers. http://betfair.com

William Hill – offers Best Odds Guaranteed, an average welcome bonus, and has a minimum bet guarantee feature for all customers. http://williamhill.com

Skybet – offers Best Odds Guaranteed, an average welcome bonus, and has a minimum bet guarantee feature for all customers. http://skybet.com

BetVictor – offers Best Odds Guaranteed, a larger than average welcome bonus, and has a minimum bet guarantee feature for all customers. http://betvictor.com

Totesport – offers Best Odds Guaranteed and an average welcome bonus. http://totesport.com

Ladbrokes – offers Best Odds Guaranteed and a larger than average welcome bonus. http://ladbrokes.com

Coral – offers best odds guaranteed and an average welcome bonus. http://coral.com

888sport – offers Best Odds Guaranteed and an average welcome bonus. http://888sport.com

Paddy Power – offers Best Odds Guaranteed and an average welcome bonus. http://paddypower.com

BetFred – offers Best Odds Guaranteed and an average welcome bonus. http://betfred.com

Betway – offers Best Odds Guaranteed and an average welcome bonus. http://betway.com

Betting Exchanges

These can be used if your bookmaker accounts have been restricted, or when the available odds are notably higher than the bookmaker:

Betfair - Provides the highest liquidity, and charges commission on profit starting at 2%. https://betfair.com/exchange

Betdaq - Provides average liquidity, and charges a 2% flat commission on profit. https://www.betdaq.com/

Matchbook - Provides average liquidity, and charges a commission on profit and losses starting at 1.5%. https://www.matchbook.com/

Smarkets - Provides average liquidity, and charges a commission on profit starting at 2%. https://smarkets.com/

Note: To avoid conflict of interest, we do not receive commissions from any bookmaker or betting exchange.

Note: The majority of our video tutorials feature an older version of the members area. If you are struggling to navigate the new members area, please watch our Navigating The Members Area Video.

Placing Your Bets

This video shows you how to place your bets using the online bookmaker and our E/W betting strategy, or the betting exchange and our Betfair SP strategy.

Performance Review: 2020 – 2024

We have been tracking Bargain Punt for a little over 4 years, and this gives us a good sample of data which allows us to clearly see how profitable the service has been to follow so far.

It also enables us to make an educated prediction for what we can expect to earn from the service going forward.

Headline Figures

Profit: +613 points

Strike Rate: 27%

Return on stakes: 10%

Return on capital: 613%

Understanding Variance

Variance is something that the majority of us overlook, because the idea that we can predict exactly how much profit we will make, in advance, is both exciting and alluring.

For example, if we can make 25 points profit per month, at £20 stakes that’s £500, which would give us an income of £6,000 per year…great!

The problem is, profits from betting don’t arrive in a linear, predictable fashion – often far from it – and this is called variance. We should therefore expect plenty of variance in the short-term, and simply accept it as a necessary part of our journey to profit.

This may not be the most exciting prospect, but it is essential to your success.

For Bargain Punt, the variance ranges from a loss of 67 points for the 2021 NH season, all the way up to a profit of 227 points for the 2021 Flat season. That’s a seasonal variance of 294 points – a substantial amount!

Once we understand variance, it’s clear to see that the best way to approach our betting is to treat it as a long-term investment, and the longer we stick with one particular betting service, the more we can overcome variance and ensure a substantial profit.

Future Prediction

In attempting to predict what we can expect to earn in future, we will use the Average Annual P/L figure which measures how much profit the service makes over the course of a typical year.

For Bargain Punter, the average annual profit stands at +154 points, which can be increased with monthly compounding to +319 points.

At £10 stakes, that’s £3,190 profit per year.

At £100 stakes, that’s £31,900 profit per year.

In addition to this, the average annual p/l for our “profit multiplier” strategy is currently +206 points.

Staking £1 / point, that’s an additional £206 profit per year.

Staking £10 / point, that’s an additional £2,060 profit per year.

Finally, it’s important to note that the above profit figures are by no means a guarantee. However, they are the most accurate measure of profitability we can make, based on the overall performance to date

The results for Bargain Punt are updated on a monthly basis; you can view and download a copy of the latest update below:

View results history