PLACING YOUR BETS
Oddschecker - use this to find the best available odds.
How to remove bookmaker spyware - reduces the likelihood of being restricted.
Skrill - use this online wallet to store your bankroll.
Google Sheets - online spreadsheet software for recording your bets.
Geegeez Gold Trial - gives you access to the "Bet Tracker Tool" for recording your bets.
Hello and welcome to module 7, where we’re going to run through the best way to place and record your bets.
The aim of this module is to show you the specific process to use, that will allow you to place and record bets in a way that will maximise your profit, and annual return on investment.
Like with the bet finding process, once you’ve added the bet placement process your normal routine, and practised it enough times, you’ll be able to do it on auto-pilot, and this will reduce the likelihood of making mistakes, and also the urge to chase losses or gamble during losing runs...
...which, as I’ve emphasised before, are bound to happen sooner or later.
Another factor that will help on that front is to choose the right amount to invest and stake.
We briefly covered this in module 1 of the course, and even if you haven’t started finding and placing your bets yet, I’m sure by now you have an idea of how much to would like to invest in your new betting venture.
When it comes to stake size, this is normally determined by the strike rate of winning bets. For our purposes, we can define strike rate as...
Number of profitable bets / Total number of bets.
In other words, if like me you bet each way at higher odds, the bets that place and return a small profit, can count towards your strike rate.
But the main problem with this is, seeing as you don’t yet have any results, you aren’t going to know your strike rate. To combat this issue, you have a few options …
1. Paper trade your bets initially, until you have enough data to work out your strike rate.
2. Start with the industry standard 100 point bankroll, and 1 point level stakes, and adjust as necessary once you have enough data.
Or, seeing as you’re using the same bet finding process as I use...
3. Use the strike rate of my daily shortlist as a starting point, and adjust as necessary once you have enough data to work out your strike rate.
Based on your estimated strike rate, you can use this table to work out the amount of points you should split your bankroll into, and therefore how much to stake per bet:
Ok, Let’s use the strike rate from my daily shortlist as an example, which is approximately 35%. This means your maximum likely losing run is 16 bets.
Generally, I recommend setting a stake where your bankroll can cover 5 maximum likely losing runs, so you would do the sum...
16 X 5 = 80 point bankroll
Then to work out your stake, divide your bankroll by 80. For example, with a £1,000 bankroll…
£1000 / 80 = £12.50 stakes
So with option 3, using the strike rate of my daily shortlist as a starting point, you would require an 80 point bankroll.
If you invested £1,000, you would stake £12.50 pet bet.
If you invested £2,000, you would stake £25 per bet.
And so on.
Now, you can choose to use level stakes, where your stake size stays the same, and you withdraw your profit every set period of time. Generally, I withdraw my profit at the end of each quarter.
This is a good option if you plan to invest a larger amount, as your stake size and profit will be larger from the outset.
For example, with a £5,000 starting bankroll, you could expect to earn somewhere in the region of £10,000 - £20,000 per year, based on our target annual ROI of 200% - 400%.
The other option is to add your profit to your initial bankroll, and increase your stake as your bankroll grows,
This is a good option if you plan to invest a smaller amount, as it allows your bankroll to grow faster than time would normally allow...
For example, let’s say you invest £500 in a betting strategy that returns 300% per year...
Instead of betting level stakes and withdrawing your winnings, you re-invest your winnings at the end of each quarter...
The outcome would look something like this...
Bankroll after quarter 1: £875
Bankroll after quarter 2: £1,531
Bankroll after quarter 3: £2,679
Bankroll after quarter 4: £4,688
At this point, you might decide your bankroll is large enough, switch to level stakes and start withdrawing your profit.
Based on an 80 point bankroll, this works out at roughly £60 stakes.
Assuming the same rate of return the following year, you’d earn approximately £14,000 in tax-free betting income.
As it’s clear to see, compounding your bankroll and stake size can be incredibly powerful.
With that being said, you can’t continue to increase your stake size forever.
Eventually, you’ll run into problems getting your bets on, whether it’s the bookies refusing to take your bets, or getting your bets matched on the betting exchange.
And this link us to the next step, once you’ve worked out your stake size…
Look for the best available odds.
This can be done quickly and easily using an odds comparison tool like oddschecker.com.
Preferably, you’re looking for bookmakers who also offer the “best odds guaranteed” concession. The firms that offer this concession have a green tick in the “best odds guaranteed” row, above the bookmakers name.
Now at this stage there are three common scenarios, depending on your current situation…
1. You are relatively new to betting, or haven’t yet opened up many bookmaker accounts.
In this case, I recommend opening at least a handful of accounts that you can use to place bets. The more accounts you have, the more often you’ll be able to take the best available odds.
My five favourite bookmakers include Bet365, William Hill, Skybet, Betvictor and Betfair (you can access their sportsbook and exchange from the same account).
After you’ve opened your accounts, I definitely recommend removing any spyware the bookmakers may use to track your betting activities.
For more information on how and why to do this, please refer to this article. The instructions for Windows computers are within the article, or for Mac see the comment from yours truly, which is linked below the Windows instructions.
In short, this is a very important step if you don’t want your accounts to get restricted.
Unfortunately, bookmaker firms aren’t very tolerant of winning punters. But if they can’t track all of your betting activities, they’re unlikely to close you down.
Ok, to scenario 2. You already bet regularly, and have a range of active and unrestricted bookmaker accounts.
So you guys have the least work to do, as you’re all primed and ready to place bets at the best available odds. That being said,
If you haven’t taken any steps to remove bookmaker spyware on your computer, I definitely recommend doing so as soon as possible, to avoid any potential problems in future.
And finally, scenario 3. You already have a significant amount of restricted accounts.
Being “Gubbed” by the bookie is something all seasoned punters dread, as it severely limits our ability to get on at the best odds.
That being said, here are some options for you to consider.
Option 1. Concentrate your efforts on the betting exchange.
Betting exchanges are a sanctuary for those of us who have been restricted by the bookies.
However, in my experience if you take the current odds it will likely reduce your profit by 10% or so, in comparison to the odds you can get with a “best odds guaranteed” bookmaker.
All in all, not too great a reduction in my opinion.
But generally, I don’t recommend taking Betfair Start Price, because it closely represents “true odds” and is therefore more difficult to turn a profit with.
Option 2. Open up new bookmaker accounts
There are a growing number of newer or lesser known bookmaker firms that offer BOG, and often top odds too.
Examples of these include Black Type, Betstars, Sportpesa, Moplay and Unibet.
It’s easy enough to find more online simply by googling “list of best odds guaranteed bookmakers”. More seem to crop up all the time.
Option 3. Make use of “lay to lose” guarantees.
There are a few firms that now offer this concession, which basically means that even if you are restricted, you can still place bets up to a maximum payout limit, usually £500.
At the time of recording, the firms offering the “lay-to-lose” guarantee include Betvictor, William Hill, Skybet and Betfair Sportsbook.
If for any reason you’re not able to place horse racing bets with any of these firms, I recommend getting in touch with them via their live chat to request the restriction be lifted. And just to note, this list may change over time.
Option 4. Ask your partner, or a close friend or relative to open an account for you.
I can’t officially recommend this practise, as it violates the bookmakers terms and conditions. Then again, they are installing potentially illegal spyware on your computer.
We’re all adults at the end of the day, so it’s your call.
If you do choose to do this, please be aware that the person opening the account will need to provide a copy of their ID, and proof of address at some point.
Anyway, these options provide plenty of opportunity for those of you who have already been “Gubbed” by the bookies.
Ok, to the next port of call…
Where to store your bankroll.
There are two main options available for you here. The first option is to use a bank account that you currently don’t use for anything else.
You can simply transfer your bankroll to this account, then use it to deposit and withdraw funds to and from your bookmaker accounts.
There are a couple of potential issues here, the first being the time it takes to withdraw funds from the bookmaker back to your bank, which is generally 3-5 working days.
Also, If you don’t have an unused bank account, you’d need to open a new one.
The Second option is to use Skrill.
You can deposit your bankroll into Skrill, then transfer money back and forth from your bookmaker or exchange accounts from there.
One advantage of using Skrill is that withdrawals generally only take 24 hours.
This makes it easier to spread your bankroll across several different bookmaker firms, and transfer money between them quickly.
Once you’ve chosen where to store your bankroll, it’s time to move onto the final step…
Recording Your Bets
Meticulous record keeping is an essential part of any successful betting venture, because you need to know exactly how much you are winning or losing over the long term.
Until recently, my preferred way of tracking my results has been to record each individual bet within a spreadsheet.
I recommend the use of Google sheets, which is available within the free Google Drive software.
The main reason being, you can access this from any computer with an internet connection, and because it’s stored securely online, there’s less chance of losing your data.
As I showed you in our last module, I generally also record some other factors with my bets including the race type, number of runners, distance, class, going, bet strength, and whether the horse is steaming or not.
This additional data comes in very useful when analysing your long term results, and finding ways to increase your profit levels further, which we’ll cover in more detail in our final module.
Now, let me mention another option called the Bet Tracker Tool, which is provided with your Geegeez Gold membership. This recent addition allows you to record your bets from the Geegeez racecards, and track them online.
This will not only save time recording your results manually, but will also give you a lot more insight in future, when looking at ways to maximise your profit.
Ok, so now I’d like to run you through a fairly brief quick walkthrough, where I’ll first show you my preferred setup when it comes to placing and recording my bets, and we’ll also take a quick look at the bet tracker tool and why it should be a worthwhile addition to you betting arsenal.
PLEASE REFER TO VIDEO ABOVE FOR THE WALKTHROUGH
(13 minutes 30 seconds)
One final thing which I didn’t mention in the walkthrough, is an optional extra step which will ensure your records are 100% accurate...
Cross-check your results with the betting history from each of your bookmaker or exchange accounts.
You can do this every set period of time, for example at the end of each month.
Simply add the totals from each of your active betting accounts, and you’ll have a 100% accurate profit or loss figure for the time period your have chosen.
You can then record your monthly P/L figures in a separate spreadsheet, and at the end of each year tot up the totals to see how much profit you’ve generated.
You can also work out your annual ROI (in percent) using the formula:
(Total Profit / Initial Investment) X 100
And, that wraps it up for placing and recording your bets.
In our next and final module, we're going to delve into the future, and see what happens when you use the process I’ve shared in this course, to find and place your bets over the long term.
We’ll then look at ways in which we can analyse our results on an ongoing basis, refine and improve the betting process further, and produce a fully fledged betting portfolio, achieve the maximum profit possible, and reduce the overall risk to our investment too.
I look forward to seeing you in module 8.