Risk Management

The size of your bankroll and stake depends on your personal attitude to risk, and what percentage of your bankroll you are willing to lose during drawdowns. 

Our preferred approach is to be conservative, using a 200 point bankroll and staking 1 point per bet. To use this approach, you can find your stake by dividing your bankroll by 200. 

For example, with a £1000 bankroll calculate £1000 / 200 = £5 stake.

Recommended Bet Types

Our approach involves betting to win at odds of under 6 (5/1), and betting each way at odds of 6 (5/1) and over.

Historically, this has produced the greatest profit levels to date, in addition to a favourable strike rate and profit consistency.

To place an each way bet, split your stake in two and use the e/w option on the bookmaker's betslip. If using the betting exchange, place half your stake in the win market, and half in the place market.

Compounding your bankroll

This is a method of growing your bankroll more quickly than time would normally allow. It involves increasing your stakes as your bankroll grows, which can be done per set period of time, or per set number of bets.

A £1,000 bankroll compounded at the end of each month, may look something like this:

£1000 starting bankroll = £10 stake

£1200 bankroll after month 1 = £12 stake

£1500 bankroll after month 2 = £15 stake

£1400 bankroll after month 3 = £14 stake

£1800 bankroll after month 4 = £18 stake

And so on.

An additional option is to remove your initial investment, once your bankroll has doubled in size. Although this initially slows the rate of return, it creates a risk-free investment and is therefore a wise consideration.

The Bookmaker

Placing your bets with a bookmaker offering top odds (and "best odds guaranteed", if possible) has historically produced greater returns than using the betting exchange.

The available odds are typically higher at the 10am post time than they are later in the day, and you can use a price comparison tool such as Oddschecker.com to see which firms are offering top odds, before placing your bets.

Opening accounts with a few different bookmakers, allows you to shop around and get your bets on at top odds. Many bookmakers also offer concessions such as best odds guaranteed, where you receive better odds if the start price (SP) is higher than the odds originally taken.

Some of the major bookmaker firms have been listed below, with a brief overview of their pros and cons:

Bet365 – offers Best Odds Guaranteed, a larger than average welcome bonus, and often provides better odds more than any other firm. http://bet365.com

Betfair Sportsbook – offers Best Odds Guaranteed, an average welcome bonus, and has a minimum bet guarantee feature for all customers. http://betfair.com

William Hill – offers Best Odds Guaranteed, an average welcome bonus, and has a minimum bet guarantee feature for all customers. http://williamhill.com

Skybet – offers Best Odds Guaranteed, an average welcome bonus, and has a minimum bet guarantee feature for all customers. http://skybet.com

BetVictor – offers Best Odds Guaranteed, a larger than average welcome bonus, and has a minimum bet guarantee feature for all customers. http://betvictor.com

Totesport – offers Best Odds Guaranteed and an average welcome bonus. http://totesport.com

Ladbrokes – offers Best Odds Guaranteed and a larger than average welcome bonus. http://ladbrokes.com

Coral – offers best odds guaranteed and an average welcome bonus. http://coral.com

888sport – offers Best Odds Guaranteed and an average welcome bonus. http://888sport.com

Paddy Power – offers Best Odds Guaranteed and an average welcome bonus. http://paddypower.com

BetFred – offers Best Odds Guaranteed and an average welcome bonus. http://betfred.com

Betway – offers Best Odds Guaranteed and an average welcome bonus. http://betway.com

Betting Exchanges

These can be used if your bookmaker accounts have been restricted, or when the available odds are notably higher than the bookmaker:

Betfair - Provides the highest liquidity, and charges commission on profit starting at 2%. https://betfair.com/exchange

Betdaq - Provides average liquidity, and charges a 2% flat commission on profit. https://www.betdaq.com/

Matchbook - Provides average liquidity, and charges a commission on profit and losses starting at 1.5%. https://www.matchbook.com/

Smarkets - Provides average liquidity, and charges a commission on profit starting at 2%. https://smarkets.com/

Note: To avoid conflict of interest, we do not receive commissions from any bookmaker or betting exchange.

Betfair SP Strategy

Many punters prefer to place their bets at Betfair SP.

All selections that appear on our Shortlist can be bet on the exchange, however the greatest profits are typically made by taking a mid-morning price. 

If you wish to place your bets at Betfair SP, there is one specific strategy that has historically proven very profitable:

1. Bet all selections with "Odds" of 15 or higher.

2. Omit all selections with "Odds" of 13 or lower.

For this strategy, our preferred approach is to use a 400 point bankroll and stake 1 point to win, plus 1 point to place.

For example, with a £1,000 bankroll calculate: £1,000 / 400 = £2.50 to win, plus £2.50 to place.

On Betfair, stake 1 point in the “win” market and stake 1 point in the market offering the highest number of places (this will be labelled “top 3”, “top 4”, “top 5” etc.) This strategy is similar to placing an "each way" bet with the bookmaker.

Performance Review: 2017 – 2023

We have been tracking The Shortlist for approximately 6 years, and this gives us an excellent sample of data which allows us to clearly see how profitable the service has been to follow so far.

It also enables us to make a shrewd prediction for what we can expect to earn from the service going forward.

Headline Figures

Profit (1pt level stakes): +1272 points

Strike Rate: 32%

Return on stakes: 6%

Return on capital: 636%

Understanding Variance

Variance is something that the majority of us overlook, because the idea that we can predict exactly how much profit we will make, in advance, is both exciting and alluring.

For example, if we can make 25 points profit per month, at £20 stakes that’s £500, which would give us an income of £6,000 per year…great!

The problem is, profits from betting don’t arrive in a linear, predictable fashion - often far from it - and this is called variance. We should therefore expect plenty of variance in the short-term, and simply accept it as a necessary part of our journey to profit.

This may not be the most exciting prospect, but it is essential to your success.

For The Shortlist, the variance ranges from a loss of 52.7 points for the 2021 NH season, all the way up to a profit of 188.8 points for the 2018 NH season. That’s a seasonal variance of over 241 points - a substantial amount!

Our most recent full season, the 2023 flat racing season, produced +166 points profits which is towards the top end of this range and confirms the underlying strategy continues to work very well.

Once we understand variance, it’s clear to see that the best way to approach our betting is to treat it as a long-term investment, and the longer we stick with one particular betting service, the more we can overcome variance and ensure a substantial profit.

Future Prediction

In attempting to predict what we can expect to earn in future, we will use the Average Annual P/L figure which measures how much profit the service makes over the course of a typical year.

For The Shortlist, at 1 point level stakes the average annual P/L stands at +218 points.

At £10 stakes, that’s £2,180 profit per year.

At £100 stakes, that’s £21,800 profit per year.

Finally, it’s important to note that the above profit figures are by no means a guarantee. However, they are the most accurate measure of profitability we can make, based on the overall performance from 2017 - 2023.

The results history for The Shortlist are updated on a monthly basis, and can be viewed below:

View results history

BetBold Update

In 2024 we started testing a new strategy called Betbold, with the aim of making additional profits from one daily "Acca" bet.

So far, the results have been impressive and we therefore began highlighting each days "Acca" bet on the selections page, starting in September 2024.

View results history